October 24, 2022
Smil (How the World Really Works), a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, takes a thought-provoking look at what “the long trajectory of inventions” suggests about what to expect in the future. To offer “a modest reminder of the world as it is, not the world of exaggerated claims or, even worse, the imaginary world of indefensible fantasies,” Smil considers three types of “failed inventions.” There are “unfulfilled promises,” which arrived with great expectations, but ended up being so harmful they were banned (DDT and chlorofluorocarbons among them); “disappointments,” which initially seemed poised to dominate their markets, only to disappear (supersonic aircraft, for example); and “eventual rejections,” or inventions that would be game-changers, but won’t arrive any time soon, such as high-speed travel in a vacuum and generating electricity through nuclear fusion. His survey leads him to a list of the inventions “we need most” (specifically in the fields of water treatment, agriculture, and electricity distribution) and to the sobering conclusion that the future will likely look like the past: full of failures. This is a solid corrective to the notion that human inventiveness can tackle any challenge.